People as the Foundation
ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2022
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History
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Global Economy
and Logistics Market
in 2022
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Artemiy

Ivanov

Head of Marketing Studies Section

ivanov

Macroeconomic Situation

In 2022, the global economy faced a lot of obstacles and adverse impacts, however, some causes for optimism emerged in the final quarter.

The global supply chains were very unstable against the acute geopolitical situation and physical shortages of various feedstock types and components. The energy market volatility and the rampant inflation impeded the global economic growth. Most regions strengthened their monetary policies, thus causing additional pressure on production and consumption. In China, new COVID outbreaks were detected almost throughout the year followed by strict anti-virus measures.
However, some positive developments became apparent at the end of the year. For instance, in December the Chinese Government decided to drop the “zero COVID tolerance” practices. This may become a critical driver for global economic growth in 2023, because China is not only the largest producer and exporter of various commodities, but also a major consumer. Release of the savings accumulated by Chinese households during the pandemic may boost the demand for various products, including those produced in Europe. Hence, the economic growth in Europe and many other countries will be directly linked to the events in China.
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of the global GNP
Average estimate at the end of 2022
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global GNP growth forecast for 2023

Chinese Economy

In early 2022, the Chinese economy was on its way to achieving its growth target at 5.5%, but the local COVID outbursts along with the stringent COVID control policy significantly limited its prospects. As a result, the Chinese GNP in 2022 ended out to be at its lowest point since mid-1970.

Chinese GNP Profile by Quarters, 2020 to 2022 (%)

quarter-vector
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Decrease in demand for real estate in China at the end of 2022
of the national GNP
The share of the real estate sector
Throughout 2022, other challenges were also apparent in China’s economic landscape. For instance, the turbulence in the real estate sector remained unsolved. The Chinese Government took action to support real estate developers, one of the key solutions being to alleviate the funding and credit limitations. However, some developers still face significant financial challenges. The Chinese Government will probably have to approve new actions to support the sector despite denying the criticality of this situation. The collapse of the Chinese developers may trigger a full-blown global economic crisis, thus it is vital to further address this issue.
The key event in late 2022 was the cancellation of the “zero COVID tolerance” policy, which simultaneously created the short-term challenges for the economy and enabled an optimistic outlook for 2023. The Chinese Government is expected to approve the minimum GNP growth target at 4.7%.

Key Forecasts for China

Reduction of unemployment

The unemployment rates correlated with the COVID outbursts during the year. This rate is predicted to reduce significantly in 2023 (down to 5.2%) due to China’s recovery after the pandemic.
Urban Population Unemployment Rate, 2020 to 2022 (%)
chinese-forecast-vector1-EN

Retail trade growth

The retail trade volumes are expected to grow approximately by 2.5 to 3% in 2023 after their reduction by 0.2% in 2022. The COVID outbursts influenced the consumption in the final quarter of 2022, but their impact was not as strong as at the initial stage of the pandemic.
Year-to-Year Retail Trade Volume Profile, 2020 to 2022 (%)
chinese-forecast-vector2

Rapid recovery starting from the second quarter

In the first quarter of 2023, the national economy will be adversely affected by COVID. Most of China’s population is reported to be previously infected by January, hence any repeated strong outbursts are less likely during the year. As a result, economic activity and consumption may rapidly recover starting from the second quarter triggered by the potential improvement of the epidemiological situation, release of excess savings in the household sector, and the government’s incentives.

China will significantly increase its export volumes in 2023

This is what many experts believe, though the Government repeatedly emphasized that the key priority is to promote the domestic demand. This may also be linked to the relatively weak state of the global economy and the growing geopolitical tension.

Improved production rates

In 2023, the rates are expected to improve to approximately 4.5% on a year-to-year basis. For reference: The production rates grew by 3.6% as of the end of 2022. The chemical industry (+12.8%) and the mechanical engineering industry (+10.8%) performed better than the other sectors.
Industrial Production Rate Profile, 2020 to 2022 (%)
chinese-forecast-vector3-EN

European Economy

As of the end of 2022, the EU GNP grew by 3.6% while the GNP in the euro area increased by 3.5%.
The region was subject to strong pressure following the materialization of the geopolitical risks in the first quarter. The volatility intensified in the supply chains while the physical availability of certain goods produced in Russia and Ukraine was jeopardized. The logistics chains started to disrupt along with the complications occurring in the customs processes and monetary transactions.
The prices for energy sources and other feedstock types skyrocketed, leading to the rampant inflation almost all over the world and the high probability of the “stagflation” risk in Europe. These events collectively contributed to the introduction of a more stringent monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the increase in the capital value along with the weakening consumer demand in the region. However, some economic challenges were successfully resolved during the year, which influenced the GNP growth in 2022.

EU and Euro Area Quarterly GNP Growth Profile, 2020 to 2022

EU (27 countries)
Euro area (19 countries)
eco-europe-vector

Key Forecasts for European Union

Demand recovery starting from mid-2023

The euro area is predicted to show the positive GNP trend, but the trade (specifically the import) and the demand for transportation services to and from the region will most probably remain low. The European retailers have accumulated vast volumes of products still to be sold. The demand might recover in the third quarter of 2023, but there are strongly pronounced risks and limitations. For instance, the prospects of the European economy and trade will largely depend on China’s recovery from COVID.
Annual Euro Area GNP Incremental Growth, 2022 to 2023
key-forecast1-EN

Germany will avoid recession

As the key European economy and a major consumer of Russian energy commodities, Germany was largely affected by the growing gas and oil prices. Its GNP growth rate slowed down from 2.1% in 2021 to 1.9% in 2022, while the forecasts for 2023 predicted the recession by 0.4%. However, experts later started to believe that the country might avoid recession altogether. The German Government expects the GNP growth by 0.2% in 2023 and by 1.8% in 2024. The current mild winter, large gas inventories, business and community support packages will help the economy to grow

Further inflation cooldown

In 2021, the inflation in the euro area grew at a stable rate, while at the end of October 2022 the inflation rate peaked at 10.6%, which is exponentially higher than the target established by the European Central Bank. Nevertheless, the rate decreased in December, and the downward trend will most likely continue. The action taken by the European Central Bank facilitates the inflation cooldown: the key rate in January is as high as 2.5%, and the next increase by 50 b. p. is expected in March 2023. The rapid decline in energy prices in the fourth quarter also significantly contributed to alleviating the inflation pressure.
Annual Inflation Fluctuation Profile in Euro Area, 2020 to 2022
key-forecast2-EN

Stable unemployment level

The unemployment level in the euro area stabilized at 6.6% in December 2022 (with 7% in December 2021). According to the various forecasts, the unemployment may amount to 7% as of the end of 2023. The action taken by the European Central Bank may adversely affect the employment levels, since the long-term tightening of the monetary policy typically results in lower employment rates.
Population Unemployment Rates, 2020 to 2022
stability-forecast-vector-EN

Trade profiles will gradually improve

European consumers cut down their costs during 2022 due to the growing inflation and the introduction of a more stringent monetary policy in the region. However, the positive forecasts regarding the GNP growth in the euro area in 2023 are partially based on the potential consumer appetite improvement. The retail trade volumes are expected to gradually increase in the coming year. This will probably solve the current issue related to the record-high product inventories to be sold by retailers, which were worth as much as 91.2 billion euros as of the third quarter of 2022.

Order backlog will support production volumes

The production volumes in 2022 varied over the range similar to the previous year. Some industries, e.g. the chemical industry, were adversely affected by high energy prices to an extreme degree, which forced Europe to import specific chemical commodities to meet the demand. As mentioned above, the new order volumes for production enterprises decrease at a stable rate, but the significant order backlog will help maintain the production volumes in the next months.
Retail Trade Volume Profile, 2020 to 2022
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Year-to-Year Industrial Production Profile, 2020 to 2022
dinamic-vector-right-EN

Mutual Trade between China and Europe

The bilateral trade between China and Europe is a major segment of the global trade and the central axis of Trans-Eurasian traffic.

The trade profile between the partners shapes the cargo base of the Eurasian rail transit route and the cargo traffic flow balance
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billion euros
Total trade volume between the partners for the major commodities in 2022
up to 624.3
billion euros
Growth in export from China to Europe in 2022
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up to 227.6
billion euros
growth in export from the Europe to China in 2022
The rapid growth in the Chinese export occurred due to the increasing volumes of dispatched organic and other chemicals, various electric devices and household goods. The trade volume growth was also caused by the fact that the supply chains returned to normal. Nevertheless, the decreasing natural trade volume is notable: the total volume reduced by 3.7%, the export from Europe decreased by 25.6%, however, the export from China grew by 13.9%.
Significantly, Europe’s deficit growth trend in its trade with China has been apparent since 2019 and the corresponding curve is constantly steepening. For instance, the available data show that China’s export exceeded its import by almost 2.5 times in 2022. The cargo flow balance deterioration creates inevitable challenges for the transportation industry in terms of seeking and struggling to secure cargoes for return shipments
China’s and Europe’s Mutual Trade, 2021 to 2022 (billion euros)
EU import from China
EU export to China
Trade balance (positive net balance for China)
mutal-trade-balance-EN
Percentage of European Countries in Total Import from China, 2022 (%)
mutal-trade-shares-EN
Percentage of European Countries in Total Export to China, 2022 (%)
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Percentage of Goods in Total China–Europe Export, 2022 (%)
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Electrical devices, communication equipment

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Mechanical equipment and appliances, computers

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Organic Chemistry Products

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Automotive

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Furniture, lighting equipment

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Toys and sports equipment

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Plastics and products from them

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Optics, devices, medical equipment

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Ferrous metal products

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Clothes for sewing

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Knitted clothes

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Shoes

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Other chemical products

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Other goods

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Electrical devices, communication equipment

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Mechanical equipment and appliances, computers

,

Organic Chemistry Products

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Automotive

1, 2%

Other chemical products

18, 0%

Other goods

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Furniture, lighting equipment

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Toys and sports equipment

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Plastics and products from them

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Optics, devices, medical equipment

2, 5%

Ferrous metal products

2, 3%

Clothes for sewing

2, 3%

Knitted clothes

1, 7%

Обувь

Percentage of Goods in Total Europe–China Export, 2022 (%)
mutal-trade-shares3
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Mechanical equipment and machinery, computers

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Electrical devices, equipment communications

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Automotive

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Pharmaceutical products

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Optics, devices, medical equipment

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Plastics and products from them

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Aircrafts

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Meat and edible meat offal

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Other chemical products

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Organic Chemistry Products

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Flour based finished products

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Leather goods, travel accessories

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Copper

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Wood and woodworking products

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Perfumes, cosmetics and toilet products

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Other goods

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Mechanical equipment and machinery, computers

,

Electrical devices, equipment communications

,

Automotive

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Pharmaceutical products

7, 1%

Optics, devices, medical equipment

3, 3%

Plastics and products from them

3, 1%

Aircrafts

1, 6%

Meat and edible meat offal

,

Other chemical products

,

Organic Chemistry Products

,

Flour based finished products

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Leather goods, travel accessories

1, 3%

Copper

1, 3%

Wood and woodworking products

1, 3%

Perfumes, cosmetics and toilet products

18, 8%

Other goods

China–Europe Export Using Main Transportation Modes, 2021 to 2022 (% of value trade)
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Railway
Auto
Sea
mutal-trade-export
mutal-trade-ex-mobile1
Europe–China Export Using Main Transportation Modes, 2021 to 2022 (% of value trade)
Avia
Railway
Auto
Sea
mutal-trade-export2
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China–Europe–China Rail Transit Market
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As of the end of 2022, the total volume of rail transit container traffic in the China – Europe – China directions on the main East – West International Transport Corridor routes has declined, while UTLC ERA’s market position has significantly strengthened.

Aidar

Kadyrov

Lead Manager of Logistics Department, Commercial Directorate

kadyrov

Traffic Profile Showing Major Corridor Shares, 2022

UTLC ERA

Naushki

Zabaikalsk

Ports and stations of Russian Far East

transit-dynamic-1-mobile-EN

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Company’s percentage in 2022 on competitive East–West International Transport Corridor routes

In 2022, 410,638 TEUs were transported in UTLC ERA’s container services on the transit route via Dostyk and Altynkol border crossings (-34.6% on a year-on-year basis). In turn, 276,472 TEUs were transported in the China–Europe direction and 134,166 TEUs were transported in the Europe–China direction (i.e. the volumes declined by 33.9% and 36%, respectively).

China–Europe–China Transit Volume in UTLC ERA Services, 2021 to 2022 (TEU)

Source: UTLC ERA
transit-volumeTransit-EN
Source: UTLC ERA

The transit via the major competitive corridors has also declined on a year-on-year basis:

Zabaikalsk

-61,5%

Down to 17,706 TEUs

Naushki

-64,4%

Down to 25,354 TEUs

Far East ports and stations

-70,2%

Down to 6,235 TEUs.

Border Crossing Share Profile in the China–Europe–China Direction, 2022 (%)

Source: UTLC ERA

UTLC ERA

Naushki

Zabaikalsk

Far East ports and stations

transit-china-EN
Source: «UTLC ERA»

The downward trend in the transit traffic volumes, including UTLC ERA’s services, is affected by various external influences:

COVID outbursts in China throughout the year caused limitations or shutdowns at national production facilities and key transportation hubs. COVID also adversely affected the internal consumption and import demand. In 2022, the retail trade volume in China reduced by 0.2%.

High energy prices and a spike in inflation in Europe weakened the production, consumption and export volumes in the region. In 2022, EU’s total export to China in physical terms reduced by 25.6%. The export by key rail traffic cargo ranges (TN VED 85, 84, 87, 99, 39, 94, 73, 48, 40, 38) in physical terms has reduced by 21.8%.

The unsold inventory levels in Europe have reached 91.2 billion euros as of the end of the third quarter of 2022 (the average level over the last 10 years was approximately 23 to 25 billion euros). As mentioned above, this eliminates the need for retailers to promptly replenish their stocks, thus the traffic speed is not critical. This causes the demand outflow from the “fast” modalities (air and rail transportation).

Increased sea transport attractiveness due to freight rates returning to normal. As of the end of the fourth quarter, the sea freight rates finally settled at the level below railway rates. As of the end of December 2022, the Shanghai–Rotterdam WCI rate reduced by 88.5% as compared to the peak rates in 2021 and reached $1,706/FEU. The rate for the reversed Rotterdam–Shanghai route was adjusted by 54.8% down to $789/FEU.

Unwillingness of European cargo owners to transport their cargoes via Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine. Starting from March 2022, the cargo flows started to switch to the competitive modalities or routes outside of Russia. For instance, they switched to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), where 33,000 TEUs were transported in 2022, which is 33% more than in the previous year (8,000 TEUs).

Reduced number of subsidies allocated by the Chinese Government to support the rail import to Europe, along with the decreasing sea freight rates, has caused the rail container transit market to become even less attractive.

Nevertheless, the demand for transit container traffic via Russia remained high.

Specifically, UTLC ERA’s transit traffic services featured 28 new routes, out of which 10 are in the Europe – China direction and 18 are in the China–Europe direction. Four new cargo origination and absorption points were added to the map of new locations for 2022: Taulov (Denmark), Kotka (Finland), Shangrao and Dulaying (China).

The changes in the external environment forced the participants in the foreign economic activities to significantly revise their processes in 2022. This caused changes in logistics chains, which affected re-allocation of shares in UTLC ERA’s total volume.

Specifically, the import service volumes grew significantly, which helped partially level out the transit cargo flow reduction. The company’s services were used to transport 148,560 TEUs on the China–Russia route in 2022. Therefore, this segment grew by 771% as compared to 2021. In April 2022, our company accepted its first payment in yuans for one of such traffic operations. As of the end of the year, 12 contracts were concluded with customers that envisage payments in yuans, and 31 trains were dispatched under these contracts.

The company has arranged import traffic on the total of 194 new routes. We have added 14 new cargo absorption points in the Russian Federation: Silikatnaya, Koltsovo, Anisovka, Kostarikha, Chernyakhovsk, Avtovo, Nizhnekamsk, Rostov Tovarny, Chernikovka, Luzhskaya, Tikhonovo, Inya Vostochnaya, Bazayikha and Bronka, as well as 12 new origination points for import cargoes: Haiphong (Vietnam), Gaoyi, Shijiazhuang, Wendeng, Luzhou, Linyi, Minhang, Guangyuan, Nansha, Tuanjiecun, Zaojiaopu, Shihezi (China). The traffic volumes for another import segment for UTLC ERA, namely the China – Republic of Belarus traffic, reached 14,098 TEUs in 2022 (i.e. the annual growth of 536%).

China–Russia Import Container Traffic Volume in UTLC ERA’s Services, TEUs and number of import routes, 2021 to 2022

2021

2022

transit-value-EN

The Growth in export volumes by traffic types in 2022 is also notable.

In particular, the traffic volume under the project for potassium chloride transportation from the Republic of Belarus to China launched in 2022 was equal to 52,284 TEUs. The total traffic volume in UTLC ERA’s export services was 107,901 TEUs, which exceeds the last year’s volume by 137%.

Export Container Traffic Volume on the Russian Federation, Republic of Belarus–China Route in UTLC ERA’s Services, 2022, TEUs

transit-export-EN

Flexibility Evidenced by Adaptation

In 2022, the conditions for Eurasian rail container traffic operations changed in a drastic manner.

The deteriorating international political situation that affected the countries participating in the traffic operations was the main driver behind most changes in the established trade relations. However, the market adaptation to the current realities is obvious, taking into account the multi-fold growth in UTLC ERA’s volumes in many directions. This confirmed the inherent flexibility of rail container traffic. Taking into account the temporary decline in demand from the European side, introduction of new import and export routes and maintaining the high service quality on the main transit route have contributed to positive performance shown by the Eurasian rail container traffic during a challenging year. Moreover, we succeeded in maintaining the traffic volumes at the record high level achieved in 2021.

In 2023, the specified political and market drivers will continue to affect the industry, and the challenging geopolitical situation will remain the main obstacle for successful operations on the China–Europe–China route. However, a number of opportunities will also arise. For instance, the cancellation of the “zero COVID tolerance” policy in China can revitalize the national production and export volumes, as well as the consumer demand, which will boost the import volumes. The intention of Chinese manufacturers to increase the electric car export volumes in the western direction, as well as the continuing growth in e-commerce cargo dispatch rates can also bring new volumes into the traffic industry. Accordingly, it is crucial to embrace the emerging opportunities and to further improve the service quality to ensure successful future development.

Conclusions

As of the end of 2022, the global economic growth rates can be said to slow down, but a number of positive events enables a more optimistic forecast for 2023 in terms of global economy and international trade development.

Meanwhile, the sea transportation has regained its status as the most “cost effective” means of delivery. The sea freight market stabilization has definitely affected the air freight carriers, who report an active cargo outflow towards sea services. This has likely affected the China–Europe–China rail traffic as well, along with other factors. These are primarily the deteriorating geopolitical situation and the overall weakness of the European and Chinese economies.

Nevertheless, the Eurasian rail services kept improving and adapting to the global changes. New customers joined the Eurasian traffic, and the new segments demonstrated high performance, which helped maintain the record high traffic volumes achieved in 2021. In 2023, the industry will face a multitude of challenges, but the market still offers a lot of opportunities. Similarly to 2022, the main area is still the development of new operating points and the service portfolio diversification, which will help level out the decline in specific segments. Finally, the further qualitative development in the industry is equally important. The critical future growth drivers may be the improved process digitalization and business transparency along with the loyalty of all stakeholders to rail transportation.

Technological Leadership Strategy
kovaleva-mobile

Maria

Orlova

Lead System Analyst of Information System Support Section

kovaleva

UTLC ERA’s mission

is to develop the EAEU transit potential by implementing high-tech logistics services that require an aligned policy to be adopted by railways and regulatory authorities in the 1,520 mm track gauge regions.

The strategic goal for 2025

is to expand the cargo base and to develop the market of transit traffic via UTLC ERA’s corridors in view of market and regulatory risks.

Principal Stakeholders

Shareholders, who affect UTLC ERA’s business by making key decisions and shaping the competitive service by means of tariff policy approval

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Key customers, who generate UTLC ERA’s revenue and ensure its growth by introducing the new cargo base, as well as affect the financial performance by leveraging the procurement volume and working capital level

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Owners of key container terminals on UTLC ERA’s routes, who maintain the process chain to transfer containers from the 1,520 to 1,435 track gauge system

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Chinese railway administration and regional logistics platforms, who ensure acceptable tariffs for container delivery from Central China to the Kazakhstan border and allocate temporary subsidies for rail container traffic within China

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Consignors, who are interested in shorter cargo delivery times

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Rolling stock owners, who allocate fitting platforms to UTLC ERA

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Fitting platform manufacturers and leasing companies

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Financial institutions

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Basic Strategic Principles

UTLC ERA is an integrator of high-tech transit container traffic on the Asia–Europe–Asia route. The company’s main goal is to expand the cargo base for transit traffic.

The operating model is aimed at increasing the transit traffic volumes in the 1,520 track gauge regions, including the following actions:

  • Minimizing the costs and creating a competitive quotation

  • Balancing the transit routes

  • Increasing the delivery speed

  • Launching new logistics services

  • Customizing transit services for new consignor groups

UTLC ERA provides for full utilization of the available throughput capacities and the best traffic parameters due to its technological and price advantage. We offer services based on an open tariff policy for all customers, ensure a non-discriminatory approach and transparent service.

UTLC ERA provides a platform for stakeholders to jointly develop technologies, primarily the digital ones.

Key Strategy Implementation Mechanisms

Creating a contract base to secure the necessary quantity of rail cars, terminals and other transport service components

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Establishing a digital technology testing ground based on UTLC ERA’s facilities

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Introducing a special regulatory treatment (by testing regulatory changes up to adjustment of the national laws in the Alliance member states) to enable the cargo base expansion and traffic net cost reduction

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Ensuring active promotion in the global transportation and logistics market to improve loyalty

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“High-Tech Integrator” Format

The previous year of 2022 called for new solutions, including transit traffic digitalization. UTLC ERA’s cooperative resource (subsidiaries and affiliates of three railway administrations) has created the opportunities for end-to-end process digitalization in three countries. The testing of their operation has solidified UTLC ERA’s status as the “regulatory testing ground”.

The digital technologies have become a key competitive advantage for logistics companies. Under the project implemented by the Eurasian Economic Commission to create an information and communication “showcase” for the national services of the EAEU digital traffic corridor ecosystem. On November 17, 2022, UTLC ERA and Republican Unitary Enterprise “Digital Development Center” (a subordinate enterprise for information project development and implementation under the Ministry of Communications and Informatization of the Republic of Belarus) signed a cooperation agreement. It envisages cooperation in multiple areas: e. g. sharing information while testing the transfer of container traffic data and electronic shipping documents for international rail freight traffic on the East–West–East route.

Partnership Networks

The realignment of logistics links and the increasing demand for rail transportation (including container traffic) to China caused an urgent need to maintain the balance between the interests of cargo owners, infrastructure owners and rolling stock operators. In this regard, ensuring the appropriate infrastructure level has become a top priority for rail transportation development.

Under the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union dated May 29, 2014, Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus pursue a coordinated transport policy, one of its tasks being to increase the transit potential efficiency of the member states.

This is why a crucial component of UTLC ERA’s development strategy is the establishment of a core terminal and logistics hub network to consolidate the cargo flow via Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia.

The transport corridors in Central Asia currently demonstrate a stable growth trend in terms of cargo traffic volumes and mutual trade between our countries as well as with China and European countries.

In this context, establishment of a core terminal and logistics hub network is an essential task. Specifically, in 2022 our company joined the task force established by JSC “NC “KTZ” and JSCo "RZD" under the Bakhty Railroad Crossing Project.

Next section

2022 Performance

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